How Kepler & route1.io transformed easyJet’s MMM with Causal Data

Client: easyJet

easyJet’s Marketing Mix Model (MMM) drives multi-million-pound retail budget decisions. Yet social media’s contribution lacked statistical clarity due to high correlation with other digital channels, creating uncertainty in allocation and growth planning.

Kepler and route1.io solved this by embedding causal experimentation directly into easyJet’s MMM framework. A multi-cell Meta Conversion Lift Study (Control, Business-as-Usual, High-Value Targeting) revealed up to 11.48% incremental purchase lift and superior Margin ROI from refined targeting. These findings were then validated through geo-lift experiments across multiple markets. route1.io integrated the experimental results into the MMM using Bayesian modelling, dramatically improving accuracy and reducing uncertainty. The outcome: 77% tightening of the MMM credible interval for social 88% improvement in Margin ROI following optimisation 35% budget increase allocated to Meta with confidence This initiative transformed social from a correlated channel with unstable impact into a proven incremental growth engine. By bringing together experimentation, advanced modelling, and commercial decision-making, Kepler and route1.io reshaped how data drives retail profitability for easyJet.